Roubaix is, as always, very hard to predict. Firstly, luck will always play a role here, but so to do the legs. But if you puncture or crash, amazing legs can be wasted chasing back on. Secondly, there is always the marriage of Classics riders and sprinters here, just like in the pros. At this race, Kaden Groves, Alberto Dainese, Matt Walls, Gerben Thijssen, Niklas Markl, Ziga Jerman, Jake Stewart and Jens Reynders are riders who can both sprint and do well on the cobbles. Meanwhile, you have Thymen Arensman, Barnabas Peak, James Fouche, Jordi Meeus, Brent Van Moer, Jonny Brown, Jarno Mobach, Alexys Brunel and Fred Wright who could all be good here, but would really prefer to arrive solo due to not being as fast as the riders above. Then you have some guys who can do both: 2017 winner Nils Eekhoff, Tom Pidcock, Marten Kooistra and Maikel Zijlaard.
Disclaimer: I had to write this preview rather early (Thursday night) due to family and work commitments. The startlist may change, apologies in advance if any riders mentioned in this preview do not take part. Thanks as always to the team at First Cycling for providing an early startlist, regardless of how accurate it is 3 days out. Their efforts are always appreciated, this preview would have been skipped without them, cheers guys!
THE PARCOURS
Like with U23 Liege, this year’s U23 Roubaix has changed its route considerably from last year’s race, removing some key cobbled sectors and in total, there are five less sectors than there was last year too. This is somewhat saddening, but perhaps the less brutal parcours will still see an aggressive race, like we mercifully saw in Liege.
Despite being 80km or so shorter than the elite men’s race, at 170km long, there are some similar qualities between the two events. Firstly, there is an hour or so’s worth of tarmac for a break to form before the first cobbled sector hits, which in this race is 41km in. in the first 65km, there are six pave sectors, but the only real one of any difficulty is the Quievy sector from the WorldTour race, rated a 5* sector due to its length (3.4km). It ends with just over 105km remaining.
We then get a smidge over 40km of flat and open roads, allowing a chance for riders to catch their breath, a break to go or be chased back, or winds to split the race wide open without the fear of the cobbles for around 45 mins to an hour of racing.
The peloton then gets rushed into more cobbles, with five sectors in just 20.5km, starting with the 4* Wandignies (3km) that ends with 63km to go, all the way to the 800m Orchies sector at 42.5km to go. In between, there is another 4* sector at Sars et Rosieres (2.4km).
At 32.5km to go, there is a short 800m 1* sector at Templeuve, before 23.5km and 22.5km to go, there is the elite race double punch of the three star sectors at Cysoing and Bourghelles. It is really at these two sectors that the final truly begins.
Next on the menu is the 1800m long Camphin en Pevele, a 4* sector that ends with just 17km to go, and is quickly followed by the double whammy of the race’s only 5* sector, the fabled Carrefour de l’Arbre (2km) and the 1* Gruson (1100m) with 13km to go.
Then, the last real sector to drop riders comes at Hem (1,4km, 1*), which as usual is 6km from the Roubaix velodrome, before the short town cobbles outside the velodrome in Roubaix are the last ranked sector. From there, a lap and a half of the velodrome await the winner.
THE FAVOURITES
Winner Candidates: Tom Pidcock (Wiggins), Nils Eekhoff (Sunweb Devo), Brent Van Moer (Lotto-Soudal U23)
Podium Contenders: Jake Stewart (Groupama-FDJ Conti), James Fouche (Wiggins), Alberto Dainese (SEG Racing Academy)
Outsiders: Jordi Meeus (SEG Racing Academy), Maikel Zijlaard (Hagens Berman Axeon), Ziga Jerman (Groupama-FDJ Conti)
Jokers: Matt Walls (GB), Gerben Thijssen (Lotto-Soudal U23)
There is no question that Tom Pidcock is made for this race. the 2017 junior edition winner, the Brit has great acceleration, a fast finish, amazing bike handling and a good team here to help him. Corentin Navarro will know the roads, and Rob Scott has really upped his game this season and become a great rider for the U23 Classics. Pidcock showed at the Triptyque that he can best most of the riders here in a sprint, and we know he has the engine to go solo. 9th in the Paris-Arras stage race also shows his form is still very good. Once again, he is the man to beat here.
Nils Eekhoff has impressed this season so far. A stage win and 3rd overall at the Tour de Bretagne, the 2017 winner of this race has a fast finish and handles the cobbles well. He too is very well suited to this race. Jarno Mobach hasn’t quite been on top of his game yet, but will be a very useful teammate, as will Niklas Markl. Eekhoff’s form is pretty good too, winning the Ronde van Overijssel just under a month ago, but hasn’t raced much since. But this is his third U23 Roubaix, he should really know the roads.
Sixth last season as former teammate (and future WT teammate) Stan Dewulf won, Brent Van Moer is back for more. He really does need to win solo, but hopefully the presence of very fast and in-form Gerben Thijssen for the Lotto boys allows him more breathing room. Van Moer is an amazing TT rider, and made the podium at last year’s Worlds. The big Belgian has raced really well in one-day races too, and with this being his last month before he joins the WT team, he will want to leave a lasting impression.
Jake Stewart is perfect for this race too, but, somehow, the big win has eluded the Brit. He arrives in good form, but not quite as good as the riders above. But his team is very good, with Karl Lauk (who won a stage at Rhone-Alpes a few weeks ago) and Alexys Brunel both arguably being able to make this list too. Theo Nonnez, interviewed by us last week, is another very good domestique, even if this is not quite his preferred terrain. Stewart’s fast finish makes him a permanent threat, and the law of averages dictate that massive U23 win is coming.
In many races, working for a big name can be a hindrance. But in the Classics, and especially Roubaix, it can be a blessing. James Fouche may not have been high up here last season, but the New Zealander has impressed me at every single race he has lined up at this year, and I think his rouleur abilities mean he can win this race. Everyone will watch Pidcock, and rightly so, but that means the elite New Zealand RR champ has a shot at escaping for a top result.
SEG Racing have a six-man team that could all win this race, yet none are clear favourites. Thymen Arensman was 3rd last season but has not hit top shape yet, Barnabas Peak is just back from an injury, Kaden Groves is untested on the cobbles and Marten Kooistra has the form but not the track record in the cobbled races. Alberto Dainese is also lacking the one-day Classics pedigree so far, but the Italian has one big advantage: he is probably the fastest man here, with teammate Groves his best challenger so far based on what we have seen this season. A flat race suits a sprinter, but can Dainese make it to the line? If he can, he can win.
Dainese’s teammate Jordi Meeus has been quiet for most of this season, but he is built for this race. the big Belgian is quick, although not exactly a sprinter, but he excels after hard days, as we saw as he sprinted to a breakaway win in the Gooikse Pijl in 2018. And his team is, in my opinion, the strongest here, which is a massive help. If he can escape, he is a man you do not want to see get far up the road and he has the strength to finish Roubaix off.
Maikel Zijlaard has had a good second season in the ranks so far, and he is a gifted Classics rider with a turn of pace at the line to boot, taking 21st here in his debut last season. The Dutchman’s team is a little weaker than normal, with Andre Carvalho being more of a puncheur, Jakob Egholm being unproven here and Jonny Brown’s form a question after 7th last season, plus two strong but untested first years in Sean Quinn and Liege winner Kevin Vermaerke, neither of whom raced here as juniors. But I feel Maikel is ready to lead this team, and he can do very well here. I fully expect a top result, but I fear some faster names may prevent him winning. Watch the Dutchman all the same.
Ziga Jerman has been a bit confusing to watch in recent years: he really excels on the Nations Cup races, but then struggles in other one-day races. With that being said, the Slovenian does have one-day cobbled pedigree and is part of a good Groupama-FDJ Conti team. He gets on well with Stewart and together, they will be hard to get rid of. A good ride from Jerman is on the cards, but I don’t quite see him winning here. But a top result is doable.
Matt Walls and Gerben Thijssen are two riders who play real joker roles here, as they are venturing into the unknown. Thijssen is in his third U23 season, but has regularly been left off the Lotto team for the Classics. Two UCI wins in the last two weeks clearly showcase his amazing shape, but the future WT team rider is really unproven in one-day races, with the U23 RR title in a field full of Lotto riders his best result. He has just 9 one-day UCI races in the last 18 months, so a win here appears unlikely, but that is what Roubaix is all about. Van Moer should be option 1, but I cannot wait to see how Thijssen does here. Walls is a very good track rider, but has won 4 UCI races in just over a year and has quickly shown his one-day pedigree too, with two UCI podiums this season. 2nd overall at Paris-Arras last weekend really underlines his sparkling form too. The GB team miss Ethan Hayter, but having Fred Wright with Walls is so valuable, given his shape is great too, as he was 3rd overall in the same race. Walls is making his debut here and a win seems unlikely, but if he can make it to the line in a front group, he can win this race. A real rider to watch, keep track on the Brit.
U23 Cycling Zone 