Finally, the best U23 stage race of the year is here. Wonderfully weird in it’s design, with lots of chances for the break, a medium mountain stage and two massive slogs in the big mountains, this race has attracted a stellar field.
But before I move on the Maglia Rosa chasers, I’ll move on to the parcours. I’m publishing the morning of the race, so I won’t delay too much. Enjoy my preview and the race!
Stage 1: Gradara to Argenta (165.3km)
Those of you who read my preview last season will remember I predicted quite a few bunch gallops in the 2021 race. Those of you who followed last year’s race will also remember there were precisely ZERO bunch gallops in the 2021 edition. With five-man teams at this race, controlling things is not going to be easy, but between GC teams trying to keep their men safe ahead of a potentially decisive stage two and a definitely decisive stage three, as well as the sprinters knowing this is their best chance to win, I can’t see this going to the break.
The course itself is very flat, just 600m of climbing throughout the day and the only categorised climb comes in the first 15km, and is 1.9km at under 4.5%.
There are a few fast men here. Nicolo Burrati is quick from CT Friuli, Sam Watson as we know from the Course de la Paix is in good form and is quick. German Dario Gomez, Sakarias, Loland, Iker Bonillo, Kasper Andersen and Ramses Debruyne are also fast finishers, although maybe a harder stage suits these guys. In truth, we have one “alpha” sprinter here: DSM Devo’s flying Dutchman Casper Van Uden. They have a good team here for a leadout, with Milesi, Onley, Poole and Wilksch all being capable riders, although missing a rider like Enzo Leijnse will hurt. But if they can get him well positioned, for me there is not a faster rider at this race.
Stage 2: Rossano to Pinzolo (166.7km)
This is the first of the weird stages of this race. At WorldTour level, we saw a stage like this be won from the break just yesterday at the Dauphine, but the sprinters mostly all made it over. But in U23 world, this stage, with over 2300m of ascent, could be an all-out kamikaze GC war. In truth, with a hard stage to come the following day, I’m not expecting any major moves, but anyone who isn’t on their best day could lose time.
The stage basically climbs gradually for 85km, before the riders tackle the first KOM at 88.5km raced, which is 4.9km at 5%. The next 35km sees them do two uncategorised climbs of 5.3km at 5.9% (lol, this is harder than the KOM but not categorised?) and 2.6km at 5.5%.
With just under 30km to go, the riders then tackle a tougher climb to Stenico, which averages just under 7% for 4.1km. Following the descent, the last 15km or so are like the first 85km, gradually uphill at false-flat grades. Of course a solo rider could escape here, especially someone like Fran Miholjevic or Alex Baudin, but I’m not sure this course is suited the pure climbers getting away, even with Stenico being tough. I think the favourites could come in together, and then it’s a test to see who is quickest. For me, if a Sean Flynn can survive this, he is a threat, as would German Dario Gomez or Ramses Debruyne. If it get’s more selective, Baudin is also no slouch, and Romain Gregoire has thrived on courses like these so far before dispatching the competition in sprints. An important day to not lose the race, but not as key as tomorrow…
Stage 3: Pinzolo to Santa Caterina Vulfurva (183.2km)
If stage two was weird, this stage is fantastic. From the gun, the riders climb Campo Carlo Magno, which is not categorised at 6.4km at 5.3%. They descend to the base of the very difficult Tonale, which is 14km at 6.4%, before a long descent.
After the downhill is over, they go over the long drag up to Aprica (13.5km at 3.4%). Another long descent follows before the showpiece event.
11.3km. 11%. Max grade of a kilometre is 13%, max grade of the climb is about 20%. The Passo di Guspessa is a brute. Sitting in the shadow of its more famous cousin, the Mortirolo, this will quickly sort the men from the boys in this race.
Following the descent, the riders then tackle a final 33km uphill, with the last 12.4km being the categorised climb to the line (12.1km at 4.6%). There is a section of false flat early in the climb, with followed by 4km of about 6.7%, but the last 2km or so is at about 3%. The damage here is going to be done on the Guspessa.
After today, the GC will have very large gaps and we will have narrowed down significantly who is in play for the Maglia Rosa.
Stage 4: Chiuro to Chiavenna (101.6km)
This stage is very easy after yesterday’s brutality, and has only 900m of climbing. While there is a slightly uphill final, this isn’t enough to deter the sprinters. But after the last two days of racing, there will be a lot of riders who can go safely into the break. Given the rest day is coming, maybe the likes of DSM can drill the front, but I don’t see enough teams being interested in controlling today for a sprint. Break gets this one for me.
Stage 5: Busca to Pevergano (146.7km)
After the rest day, the riders face a parcours similar to some of the U23 UCI races that have been happening in Italy over the last fortnight or so, with local laps featuring a climb. There isn’t too much to say about the course before the riders get to the laps, aside from the 11km at 7.5% Santuario di Valmala climb. Coming in the first 18km, this could be a good launchpad for a break, and it then comes down to who wants to chase.
The lap climb of Pione del Colletto isn’t that hard, just 1.3km at 4.4%, and the last ascent on lap three is just over 10km to go. There is also a drag to the line for about 2.5km, and it does steepen a bit under the flamme rouge.
This is a hard stage to predict. It’s not perfect for a sprint, but as I said earlier, a lot of the fast men here would like this sort of finish. It will come down to a few factors. What size is the break and do team’s want to chase it? This is the last chance for a sprint, given the last stage is flat but finishes on a very steep climb. I could see this being chased back, but it’s really going to be touch and go. Look to the same names as stage one if the bunch get it. If it’s the break, a rider like Federico Guzzo, who was won twice on the Italian UCI U23 circuit this season, is perfect for this stage.
Stage 6: Boves to Colle Fauniera (110.8km)
The U23 Giro has for sure found a formula they like. We’ve seen days in the medium mountains open the race up, before a flat stage with a climb to over 2000m settles things for good. We’ve had a more than medium mountain stage here, but this is the classiv VAM and W/kg test from the previous races. The difference, the climb to 2476m is brutal.
There is nothing to say about the early part of the race with laps around Boves. It’s 90km of flat before the 18.6km climb that averages 8.6%. Nicknamed the Hill of the Dead due to fighting on the mountain in the last 1700s, some GC hopes will follow suit here. There is also a massive statue to Marco Pantani at the top, and the climb is allegedly going to be changing it’s name to Colle Pantani, following it’s inclusion at the 1999 Giro, where Marco dazzled.
The climb is brutal, with gradients over 15% in places, and a real stepped feel to it, meaning rhythm will be hard to achieve. None of the opening 6km average 10%, although three of the following six do, including one averaging over 11%, although there is a kilometre at 5% in there too to recover a little. The final 6.6km start with a kilometre under 7%, followed by one just under 10%, before that fearsome 13.5% kilometre comes with just 3.6 left by its end. 9.4%, 8.5% and 7.5% are the last 3kms, and the last 600m are under 7%.
Savage. By day’s end, with the gaps on the Guspessa and here, we will know our winner and, most likely, our podium.
Stage 7: Cuneo to Pinerolo (122km)
A sneakily tough stage, the riders are on rolling roads on the final day, even if there is under 1000m climbing. There is a short climb just under 60km in, before the riders tackle the short and steep climb in Pinerolo for the first time with 22km to go. Cobbled, it is like a Flemish berg, at 500m long and over 12% steep. A lap follows, before the final ascent of the Giro the finish line on the same climb.
This again probably goes to the break I think, unless there are GC moves kicking off. It’s too steep a climb for any of the fast men to be interested, except for maybe the likes of Watson or Van Uden.
The Contenders
Winner Candidates: Reuben Thompson & Lenny Martinez (Groupama-FDJ Conti), Martin Lopez (Astana Devo)
Podium Contenders: Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Soudal U23), Edgar Andres Pinzon (Colombia Tierra de Atletas), Mason Hollyman (Israel Cycling Academy), Fernando Tercero (EOLO-Kometa U23)
Outsiders: Toon Clynhens (Elevate), Florian Lipowitz (Tirol-KTM), Fran Miholjevic (CT Friuli), Matthew Riccitello (Hagens Berman Axeon), Romain Gregoire (Groupama-FDJ Conti), Alex Baudin (Tudor), Davide Piganzoli (Eolo-Kometa U23)
Jokers: German Dario Gomez & Yeisson Casallas (Colombia Tierra de Atletas), Felix Englehardt (Tirol-KTM), Juan Carlos Lopez (Astan Devo), Robin Orins (Elevate), Leo Hayter & Ivan Romeo (Hagens Berman Axeon), Simone Raccani (Zalf), Hannes Wilksch (DSM Devo), Alexander Tarlton & Jakob Gessner (Lotto-Kern Haus)
Picking the contenders and classifying them for this race was so hard, as there were so many names. So, I’ve included as many as I can. For me, FDJ hold the key to the race. Thompson has been targeting this all year, given not too many races beforehand suit him, but the much younger Martinez has been flying on his outings with the pro team at Tour of the Alps and Mer’can Tour Classic. I think these two are the best climbers here, and it will be interesting to see how they play their cards. Martinez makes the most sense to me, as I see him being hard to follow on the race’s hardest climbs, but Thompson has been training and reconning this course a lot.
Martin Lopez is another very gifted climber. The South Americans, since they dominated the 2018 podium, had struggled to get to the climbs in touching distance of the GC, so this trend may continue this season. Lopez hasn’t raced too much lately, but he looked very good with the pros back in Oman, and was strong on the Colombier in l’Avenir last season. Not having Garofoli here is a blow, but Juan Carlos Lopez should be a very good domestique on the climbs.
Van Eetvelt was flying last week at Course de la Paix, but this is a better field and harder climbs. He wasn’t able to crack the top ten last season, even if he is a lot stronger now. We know he has the form, Lotto-Soudal U23 have taken guys like Lecerf, Van der Beken and Van Hemelen to try and support him in the hills too. I think he can win this race, but a podium for the future Lotto pro would be fantastic too.
Colombian Pinzon hasn’t got great European experience, and his form is a bit questionable since taking 8th overall in a pro race at Giro di Sicilia and then 2nd at Giro del Belvedere. But he looked great in Sicily, and with Yeisson Cassallas and Gomez, the Colombians should be right up for the fight here.
Mason Hollyman has gotten better with every season, and is well-deserving of his move to Israel’s pro team next year. 6th overall at Alpes-Isere showed his form was trending upwards, and I think he can fight for the podium. His team is weaker without Marco Frigo, but he can follow wheels well and knows how these races are done, given he is a final year U23. I’m expecting a big ride here.
Finally, I’ve rounded out the podium contenders with Fernando Tercero. 2nd at Ronde de l’Isard, he has shown well in Spain and has been consistent in the Italian U23 races too. But Tercero is waiting for the mountains, and this race. This is his chance to further show his class and try and make the jump up to the pros. I have younger teammate Piganzoli further down the list. His form is good and he top tenned Course de la Paix, but this field is better than last year’s and I think I’d like to have seen him finish higher on the summit finish in the Czech race. But he can be really useful for Tercero if he can’t contest himself.
The outsiders category is full of riders with question marks. Guys like Miholjevic and Baudin have been electric this season, but we have pretty limited viewings of them in the high mountains to see if they can climb with the very best. I’ve already covered Piganzoli’s reasons for being here. Toon Clynhens has shown in the last two Course de la Paix editions that he is a great climber, and he may have been higher than 6th this year if he could ride for himself. But for now, he cannot be considered more than an outsider. After a strong start in Croatia, Matthew Riccitello hasn’t really done races that suit his skillset, so it’s not clear how well he is going either. Romain Gregoire has been amazing this year, but he has two very strong teammates and we’re not yet sure if he is more puncheur than mountain goat, and I’m not even sure we will get that answer in this race if he has to help others, but he cannot be discounted. We’ve always known Florian Lipowitz has talent, but he’s been very quiet this season and it’s not clear if he has the top condition to compete at this race.
The jokers are riders I have no idea what to expect from. They may be great, they may not even try for GC and go for stages, they may need to help teammates. Cassallas hasn’t performed as well as his younger teammates this year, so potentially he enters this race in the role of a helper, even if he is the final year U23, and we’re yet to see German Dario Gomez go for GC, even if he is a great one-day rider and has been terrific in 2022. Ivan Romeo is very young, and I know Hayter wants to test himself in the mountains here, but we have no indication on what the results of that test will be. Wilksch will go for the GC, but in this field, a top ten would be a great ride for the German. The same can be said for his compatriots Alexander Tarlton and Jakob Gessner. Robin Orins is a good puncheur, but I’m not sure if he can climb with the best yet in a stage race, and Clynhens is the leader here. Felix Englehardt should maybe be higher on this list, but we’re yet to see if he can crack the top ten of these longer stage races. He’s the one rider I’m worried I’ve placed too low though! And finally, Juan Carlos Lopez is pretty new to Europe, and although he has looked solid in the pro races, I can see the 21-year-old working for sole leader Lopez.
I’ll end my preview by adding some guys who can hunt stages across the week: Sam Watson (Groupama-FDJ Conti), Casper Van Uden (DSM Devo), Sakarias Loland & Simon Dalby (Uno-X Dare), Sean Flynn & Alois Charrin (Tudor), Federico Guzzo & Davide De Pretto (Zalf), Walter Calzoni (Gallina Ecotek), Alec Segaert & Ramses Debruyne (Lotto-Soudal U23), Nicolo Buratti & Davide De Cassan (CT Friuli), Kasper Andersen (Hagens Berman Axeon) Iker Bonillo, Martin Marcellusi & Alessandro Pinarello (Bardiani-CSF), Pierre-Pascal Keup (Lotto-Kern Haus) and Gil Gelders & Leander Van Hautegem (Bingoal Devo).
U23 Cycling Zone 